Observations/Thoughts

Mission President Effect

New Investigators

Clearly a mission president effect is observed, note the color changes and regression lines by mission president for each mission.

However we should confirm that the mission president effect isn’t overly influenced/confounded by the number of missionaries. The plot below confirms that the mission president has a potentially strong effect on the number of new investigators within a mission.

Baptisms/Confirmations

Again a mission president effect is observed.

Data Cleaning/Correcting Opportunities

Potential Outliers

Outliers are possible and we would want to be careful about their effect on predictions/goals.

Quote from Preach My Gospel about goals and how that influenced my suggestions regarding mission goals

Incorporate a machine learning model or time-series model for prediction.